Carmack: Mobiles will surpass current consoles
John Carmack has been working in mobile gaming since 2005
Although he says that people have exaggerated the power of current mobile platforms, he reckons they are not far away from the current console generation and speculates that in two years time they will be much further ahead.
Carmack said that older developers report playing small games on the iPad a lot more than they find themselves sitting in front of a 360 or PS3. 'It's a different experience though,' he added. 'It's a diversion rather than a destination.'
When id started working on Rage, Carmack explained that the iPhone and iOS did not exist. 'That's a little scary when you think about it, because major landscape change could be happening underneath our feet as we work on these large scale projects,' he said.
He also speculates that streaming services like OnLive will do well in the future, with convenience being a huge factor in determining the direction of future gaming generations.
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Discuss in the forums ReplyYou're talking about completely different paradigms though. Mobile games don't need to run on over-specced custom desktop rigs to provide value to their users; my most played games on the iPad include Countdown, GWars Touch, Angry Birds and eBoy FixPix. Mobile games are more dependent on innovative control methods and interaction rather than raw power, but they in no way infringe on the amount I still use my Xbox 360- I just happen to play mobile games a lot more now that I've got devices that they run on.
People who play PC and consoles gains have to actively pursue doing so, but when everyone who has a smartphone or a tablet can play Plants v Zombies or Boggle, it's not hard to see which will reach ubiquity quicker.
Edit: In hindsight I'm not quite sure whether the article's claiming that mobile gaming will become more successful than console gaming or more powerful, but my points above remain.
I can see where you're coming from, but look at how far mobile phones have come already. Nokia's Snake game was one of the first and you can now play that on every youtube video. The amount of power needed to run Angry Birds as smooth as it does is phenomenal compared to what a phone's hardware was back then. It's because of the strides forward that you're able to play these new types of games and it's why you're finding yourself playing them more as the current hardware is able to offer a lot more than something as simple as Snake.
The games themselves are a lot more engaging because of the gfx and sound and the fact they are always to hand and nearly immediate to play. They are only ever going to get more sophisticated gfx wise - the interface could change or alter to include mind or eye control I guess. The sound can't really have a lot more to it - small speakers aren't known for producing stellar audio.
My only hope is that phones don't go '3d' necessitating wearing 3d ready glasses all the time. I can see prescription 3d glasses being an available line in Specsavers.
If he talks about power and capability then I am sure that the next development of consoles will be more powerful than any 'portable device'.
He is right about portable games being diversion rather than destination, but again, tell me something we don't know, John. Or better yet, make a game that's good and relevant instead. That is your job, isn't it?
The question should be will they surpass the next Gen of consoles in the consoles life time?
It microsoft and sony plan on the long life the current gen have had, then the answer will be OH YES.
Gee whizz. In similarly ground-breaking predictions, my mate said that it's going to be hotter in London next week than it was six months ago, when we had all that snow.
In all fairness, taking the contents of a PS3 and shrinking it to a tiny handheld device with a built in screen in seven years is pretty good going!
Really, the whole "There are ton of flash games on PC! How can you say PC gaming's not great right now?" shits me no end.
Considering that mobile CPU and GPU power is increasing at a rate well above Moore's law, it wouldn't suprise me that in 2 years there will be either ARM or x86 mobile chips with 6-10x the power of current processors (or about a mid-grade old Core 2 dual processor like an E7500 or something). That puts it easily on par or beyond what current generation consoles are capable of.
If manufacturers continue 7-10 years product runs mobile gaming probably will continue to "leap ahead" at least in the last 1-4 years of a consoles life time. Of course next generation consoles are likely to have a lead for several years when they are first introduced, but as I mentioned if they have the extended life cycles that this generation has, mobile processing is again likely to over take them before the consoles' EOL.
I think though that processing in the tablet arena is more likely to be what really steps ahead. That isn't to say that a phone couldn't, but a tablet has anything from 3-6x more battery capacity, which means it can pack a much more powerful processor for similar battery life as a phone, or a somewhat more powerful processor with a longer battery life than a phone. Its also easier to make a higher resolution display because of all the extra screen real estate, combined with more space for interface and controls.
Speaking as an iPad 2 owner, mine certainly won't exceed a PS3 or Xbox 360, but it'll beat the pants off a Wii, an Xbox or PS2 and I can imagine in a generation or two of processor reaching parity with current generation consoles. I like me both my casual and my more in depth games on a tablet.
Frankly, everyone wins.
+1 to you. I'd rather he just stuck to making games, and got back to making good ones.
It's interesting thought that perhaps one fo the reasons mobile stuff is doing so well is ebcause it only has to power a very small screen compared to the 30inch+ that consoles and PCs have to populate?
but we're still going to want to plug it into the hdtv and surround sound.
"mobile" gaming is only good for short, pointless games, boredom killers on the ride to work. You can't get into an epic storyline or go on a raid while on the subway.
I was going to make a comment of my own, but this one says it all.
If it's an obvious question, blame the interviewer.
heheh, most probably this one as well, he could have said "My Answer is too much for a tiny brain like yours to comprehend so I beg to comment"
I still play "Donkey Kong" in my game & Watch from Nintendo and you are telling me that games evolved?
I can't believe!...
[/sarcasm]
What a ridiculous thing to do say. This is nothing more than headline grabbing.
oh yeah? the iPad 2 is practically there already. That's running a chipset that is identical to what will be in the next iPhone, out in the next few months if the rumours and speculation are to be believed.
12 months after that, Apple will release their next device. This is just the way things are going, dude. The current gen consoles are around 5 years old now. Things get faster; it's hardly surprising.
And "when" rage is complete, they're going to start work on Doom 4. By that time we will have 16000 core GPU's.
You missed the point. Of course mobile devices are practically there already compared to five year old technology - obviously! Carmack is comparing the mobile devices of the next couple of years to what will be SEVEN year old console technology...so of course mobiles will overtake them...but that's like comparing a modern 6-core PC with SLI/Crossfire to a pentium 4 with embedded graphics....it's not a fair comparison.
Carmack should be comparing the mobile devices of the future with the console/pcs of the future.
Thus, it's headline grabbing...he's just saying....."things in the future will be faster than the things we have now". No kidding. I'm just waiting for the "I told you this would happen" story in two years time.
As I pointed out before - Carmack's just answering an interview question, he's hardly headline grabbing. Would you respond any differently if someone asked you if you thought mobile devices would overtake today's consoles?
It's a shame how little people actually read articles before comenting.
Yes, I read the article.
Oh-em-gee, we just disagree on this. That doesn't mean I didn't read it. It means I have a different opinion.
Again, there was an editorial from Bit-Tech/CPC recently proclaiming that they didn't follow the journalistic herd of sheep by posting every little quip and quote by anyone and everyone to sensationalise and fill space - please someone justify to me why the above article doesn't fall totally into that category? Come on, Bit-Tech, !QUALITY please, not just QUANTITY. It seems barely a week goes by when there isn't an article on here from Carmack (not ANOTHER Carmack article... Groan...) reporting on some 'newsworthy' comment of his in some pointless interview or other. Let's try and get some interviews from the relevant people in the software and ahrdware industry, not people who were relevant back in the mid-nineties...
This. +1
xbox 360 reason kinect.
and as far the raw grunt is concerned its just a matter of a year for these devices to catch up with current gen consoles
Carmack, why don't you make a best selling top 3 game again first, and then you can say whatever you want and we will probably believe you (again)
+1
Sigh. I know everyone's right, I just can't help it, I love them far too much to disagree with anything Carmack says, no matter how bleeding obvious or unhelpful.
I'll go away now and play Doom 2 in a corner somewhere.