Analysts predict Christmas flops

Author: Joe Martin
Published: 24th November 2008
Comments (16) Stumble
Analysts predict Christmas flops

Among the predicted flops for Christmas 2008 were Need for Speed: Undercover and Web of Shadows.

In another effort to prove their worth industry analysts have offered predictions on what games will do little more than flop this Christmas.

Gamasutra asked some of the leading industry analysts to try and guess which games will earn a fail award this Christmas, with predictions ranging from Need for Speed: Undercover right through to the unproven Spiderman: Web of Shadows.

The list included all platforms and genres and many analysts claimed that it was bound to be the casual, unfamiliar games which might flop most this Christmas as casual buyers try to prune expenses as a result of the credit crunch.

"If any cuts are made out of a gamer's holiday budget, it will be those titles that they could do without: games like Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe," said EEDAR's Jesse Divinch - who isn't likely to be Midway's best friend now, given the company's unfortunate economic position.

"[MK vs DC Universe] is an awesome game with great branding qualities. However, it simply does not stack up against the large list of AAA titles this holiday season, continued Jesse.

"Others include: Need for Speed Undercover (which has become a stale brand as of late), Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts, Spider-Man: Web of Shadows, Midnight Club: Los Angeles, and any other title that squeaks by with quality scores below 80 percent. As consumers become more judicious with their discretionary income this holiday season, quality scores will likely have a bigger weight on a gamer's purchasing decision than in previous holidays."

Other predictions from the analysts included Tomb Raider: Underworld, which Michael Pachter thinks is failing to get a foothold in the minds of many gamers this year, and Animal Crossing: City Folk. Let us know your thoughts in the forums.
Quote liratheal 24th November 2008, 11:08
Would any of those games flopping at any time of the year be a massive surprise to anyone?
Quote ChaosDefinesOrder 24th November 2008, 11:12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Article
casual buyers try to prune expenses as a result of the credit crunch

and the fact that newly released console games are 50 quid a go has nothing to do with the lack of willingness to spend money... of course not...
Quote p3n 24th November 2008, 11:19
Quote:
Originally Posted by liratheal
Would any of those games flopping at any time of the year be a massive surprise to anyone?

If any game does well vs. WoW i'd be suprised...
Quote DXR_13KE 24th November 2008, 11:36
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosDefinesOrder
and the fact that newly released console games are 50 quid a go has nothing to do with the lack of willingness to spend money... of course not...

+1
Quote Flibblebot 24th November 2008, 11:51
Frankly, there are so many good, original and innovative games out at the moment, that other games will have a tough time going up against them. The fact that all of the games mentioned are just cash-in sequels makes their fail probabilities all the higher.
Quote themax 24th November 2008, 13:29
Honestly I don't think any game that doesn't have the number 2 or 3 in it will flop this Holiday Season aside from World of Warcraft. I am well aware this isn't the first Need for Speed, or Banjo Kazooie, but it just feels like this season (well year atleast) gamers want to know they are indeed playing the much await "Part 2 or Part 3" to any franchise.
Quote lewchenko 24th November 2008, 14:28
Stale old franchises... as expected.

Especially the Animal Crossing City Folk.

Nintendo took an amazing franchise which sold millions on the DS and ported it to the Wii... without making hardly any changes at all. Maybe they ran out of power on the Wii (in the CPU/GPU department LOL!)

My other half is a DS lover and adores Animal Crossing, but after reading the details for the Wii version of the game, she said 'Skip it.... its the same bloody game'.

As for need for speed games... YAWN.... I 'rented' one of them... never again.
Quote naokaji 24th November 2008, 15:44
I predict a Christmas flop too, but for a different reason, shops around here have been promoting christmas stuff since september... so by the time christmas is actually close I'm sick of it and enter a mental anti state.
Quote talladega 24th November 2008, 16:36
Quote:
Originally Posted by liratheal
Would any of those games flopping at any time of the year be a massive surprise to anyone?
ive read that Banjo Kazooie is supposed to be soooooo amazing and gonna sell awesome. never believed it myself, but other than that, i havent heard much about these games.
Quote ssj12 24th November 2008, 16:49
here is the problem with most console games and gamers. Most console games need marines or space marines with guns to sell and console gamers only look at one or two genres of games unless you own a Wii which then you buy garage games 90% of the time due to the fact there are very few good games.

If look at sales charts for the USA any week on VGChartz or monthly from the NPD you will see the truth in this.
Quote Furymouse 24th November 2008, 17:32
A better question might be, what's not going to flop this season? I can only really think of two games that are going to do really well and that's WOW and Left 4 Dead.
Quote talladega 24th November 2008, 23:40
So what do you consider a flop? What kind of sales must it get to not flop?
Quote Faulk_Wulf 25th November 2008, 01:40
To not flop, one must be able to think/read the title without vomiting, rolling their eyes, yawning, or making any other unenthusiastic gesture. If said outloud it must be able to be said in a serious or eager tone without present company doing any of the above, or beating the ever loving snot out of you.

Flop:
"Hey guys! A new Hello Kitty game came out!"
"Hey guys! They made a new Tomb Raider game, I know the last 5 sucked but..."
"Hey guys! There's a new Mortal Combat game! I bet Scorpion can beat Superman..."

Not-Flop:
"Hey guys! I got the new World Of Warcraft expansion!" (PS - You may hate this game, but it has 11 million active accounts.)
"Hey guys! I bought Saints Row 2!"
etc.
Quote zoot2boot 25th November 2008, 05:49
i hope the banjo and kazooie game does ok, i'm interested in playing that, cool concept and all.
Quote Loot3r 25th November 2008, 07:51
so whens the new bionic commando coming out :) LOL
Quote AClark 25th November 2008, 09:07
There's no games no games on that list that I would buy, even if I had an everlasting budget :x
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