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Internet could be filled up by 2010

Internet could be filled up by 2010

According to a new study, you're clooging up these tubes...I bet it's all the porn and pirated movies you're downloading.

You're clogging up the Internet tubes! At least that is what a new study performed by US analyst firm Nemertes Research says. The study predicts that, because consumer and corporate use of the Internet is becoming so heavy, the Internet could come to a gridlock by the year 2010.

According to Nemertes Research, internet backbone providers will need to fund up to $137 billion in order to increase capacity to keep up with demand. Increasing ISP speeds along with new video and other Web content

Our findings indicate that although core fibre and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years,” says Nemertes.

ISPs around the world are already investing millions and even billions of dollars into their networks in order to keep up with the ever increasing demand for access speed. Some are even going to drastic measures in order to help ease some of the traffic.

Recently, US ISP Comcast was caught throttling BitTorrent downloads through packet shaping techniques. The whole ordeal with Comcast might end wind up in court and, should Comcast prevail, set a precedent for ISPs and just how the can manage their network traffic.

AT&T may be taking other steps in order to help ease its network traffic. News came about yesterday that the telecom giant has invested in a "video DNA" system in order to stop piracy at the ISP level. The new techniques uses bits and sample of a video being downloaded and compares it to a "DNA strain" on file. If the samples match up, then your download could be shut off. Of course the EFF is watching this move very closely and warns that AT&T could be violating users' privacy.

Do you think that we'll really come to an Internet gridlock in just over two years or is this another scaremongering study? Leave your thoughts over in the forums.

24 Comments

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quack 21st November 2007, 13:07 Quote
It is a scaremongering study, paid for BY the telcos.

They want to spread as much FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt) as possible so Net Neutrality will become a thing of the past, and therefore save themselves billions in improving their infrastructure which they should be doing anyway.
mmorgue 21st November 2007, 13:28 Quote
Hmm. Interesting. I wonder what procedures we in the UK will have put in place. Perhaps a "Net-congestion" charge for which webbernet tube your webbernet-packets travel down.

I suppose if you register your data as "black cab material" you'd go congestion charge free...

/sigh

You'd think the US and the UK wouldn't have any trouble keeping up with the likes of Japan or Sweden where fiber optics are quite normal
Jamie 21st November 2007, 13:29 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by quack
It is a scaremongering study, paid for BY the telcos.

They want to spread as much FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt) as possible so Net Neutrality will become a thing of the past, and therefore save themselves billions in improving their infrastructure which they should be doing anyway.

Agreed, first thing I thought when I saw this on the BBC yesterday.
Lazarus Dark 21st November 2007, 13:36 Quote
I can believe it.
Think about it. No one twenty years ago could have seen the rapidly increasing demand for computing power. The more calculations per second I can do, the more I find I need. A new, faster cpu? Now I can do things I never thought about... but wait, I just thought of something I still can't do... multicore? Thanks, now I can do that too, but wait... if I had eighty cores, I could do even more!
The same with internet access- wow, this bbs and aol is great... but dl'ing a song takes ages. 56k modem? Now I can dl that song, but what about video? Cable modem, great... but what about HD?
Give me a gigabit line and I bet I could find a way to max it out and still need more. Heck, I already know how I'd use it.
stephen2002 21st November 2007, 17:16 Quote
That the internet will end up clogged seems to be a rather silly notion. The internet keeps expanding capacity. If more capacity is called for then more capacity will be built. Bandwidth and applications of the bandwidth generally go hand in hand. Perhaps if more and more applications appeared with a stagnation of capacity buildout then sure, it would clog up pretty quick, but that is just not the case. My two cents at least.
Tyinsar 21st November 2007, 17:34 Quote
Yesterday wasn't the last day of March so...????
This reminded me of a Dilbert cartoon - best link a quick search gave: http://www.cs.vu.nl/~frankh/dilbert.html scroll down or search page for "The Internet is full".
kenco_uk 21st November 2007, 18:10 Quote
Traffic shaping is nothing new for the UK.

I think the main fear is IPv4 running out of available addresses and I presume the costs involved are for changing equipment to IPv6.
julianmartin 21st November 2007, 19:14 Quote
I concur kenco, traffic shaping is old news.

Plusnet have been throttling all P2P downloads for over 18 months now, as do Tiscali and i'm sure plenty of others as well.
DXR_13KE 21st November 2007, 20:25 Quote
i wonder if fiber is that expensive that companies don't want to change....
Woodstock 21st November 2007, 20:34 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Article

ISPs around the world are already investing millions and even billions of dollars into their networks in order to keep up with the ever increasing demand for access speed.

you hear that telecom, nz is part of this world isnt it?
drakanious 21st November 2007, 21:24 Quote
Seems almost Malthusian in its logic.

"Bandwidth increases linearly while population increases exponentially."

Give me a break--as long as telecoms focus on increasing bandwidth, and as long as the government continues to regulate monopolies (or veritable monopolies in the case of many US towns where Cable and DSL are the only 2 viable choices for broadband), the situation will resolve itself--if demand outstrips supply at the rate this article is implying (especially if nothing is done to increasing demand when companies *know* that demand is increasing at a given rate), then the companies should be fined for unfair business practices--don't let any rep tell you otherwise--they have tons of money (it's called *profit*).

*anger*
Cptn-Inafinus 22nd November 2007, 00:08 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by julianmartin
Plusnet have been throttling all P2P downloads for over 18 months now, as do Tiscali and i'm sure plenty of others as well.

I havent had any troubles with that at all so far. It might be because I live rural, but i on average get speeds on downloads and P2P software of between 75kbps (minimum!) and 250kbps! Thats dam good, considering how far away i am from the nearest exchange.

I have downloaded over 3gb's in a whole day and never had it throttled.
evox 22nd November 2007, 00:25 Quote
Kill MySpace = Problem Solved
Henk 22nd November 2007, 08:59 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by evox
Kill YouTube = Problem Solved

Fixed.
Tyinsar 22nd November 2007, 18:32 Quote
& FaceBook & ...
DougEdey 22nd November 2007, 22:21 Quote
Give us IPv6 then the telcos will be happy as they can charge per PC and we don't have to fiddle with atrocious routers.

Also, if JANET can give sustainable 50Gbit/s, why can't BT?
The_Beast 23rd November 2007, 01:49 Quote
If there wasn't porn on the internet there would be no problem at all

then again that is the reason the internet was created, porn :D
Tyinsar 23rd November 2007, 05:26 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Beast
If there wasn't porn on the internet there would be no problem at all

then again that is the reason the internet was created, porn :D
The last part is not true but I'm sure that removing all the porn would have a huge impact.
steveo_mcg 23rd November 2007, 13:12 Quote
Porn, however, has paid for a large part of the web at least.
The_Beast 24th November 2007, 00:08 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyinsar
The last part is not true but I'm sure that removing all the porn would have a huge impact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveo_mcg
Porn, however, has paid for a large part of the web at least.

I'm I not speaking english??? I said that porn is the reason the internet was created
steveo_mcg 24th November 2007, 00:50 Quote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet
show me where they metion porn?!? It payed for the continued development of the web but not the whole internet.
walle 24th November 2007, 01:03 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveo_mcg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet
show me where they metion porn?!?

Well of course they wouldn’t, that would be viewed as politically incorrect you see.:p Now; surely we all know that the internet was created as to share sex, drugs and rock’n roll, I mean, common now.:) Hmm…the information is on wiki you say, well, the fact that porn isn’t mentioned could easily be rectified me thinks.

(just my humour mate, no offence)


On topic: the statment made that says that the Internet could be filled up by the year of 2010, is someting I view to be nothing more than "fear" mongering rants.
steveo_mcg 24th November 2007, 01:08 Quote
[QUOTE=walle;1608297]Well of course they wouldn’t, that would be viewed as politically incorrect you see.:p Now; surely we all know that the internet was created as to share sex, drugs and rock’n roll, I mean, common now.:) Hmm…the information is on wiki you say, well, the fact that porn isn’t mentioned could easily be rectified me thinks.

(just my humour mate, no offence)
:)
Tyinsar 24th November 2007, 02:35 Quote
:)

Have there been any studies recently that show what the current percentages of internet use are (divided by purpose for use: e-mail, p2p file sharing, e-commerce, streaming video, ...) and how that use is changing?
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