A subscription based windows with all its limtations on number of PCs and reinstalls .... When that comes, I am off to get a Mac or linux OS.

They could start charging for service packs and version updates. I do not like the idea of a subscription based operating system. It would work but not very well IMHO. They could also focus on additional software like word, power point, excel, etc. make it their primary focus for money making

technically apple make you pay £100 for a service pack as the "new" os's are just updates to the core os10.. they do offer a lot more than the windows service packs do, but thats essentialy what they are

Once again, Gartner states the obvious...

I've suspected for a while this may be the last. Linux has nearly caught up with windows in terms of ease of use on the ready to use distros. And I think 400 bucks for ultimate will leave a bad taste in peoples mouth. Actually, a subscription os sounds like a possibility for windows. It seems to work for mac as the guy above posted they basically charge 100 or so a year for service packs. But for the general surf/word process/email crowd a basic linux is more than enough, most home users dont need a half grand os.

Isn't this what they said about IE6?

Subscriptions seem to work for online games and when you add up the yearly cost for one game it isn't too far out of line. The problem I see is that it pretty much requires everyone to have broadband and not everyone can get it (at least not at a reasonable price).

heh. as long as XP still works for gaming, im sticking with it... when Linux takes over im more than happy to even buy a linux OS that works right out of the box... Just because i can tweak it more to get more out of it...

Think I'll stick with XP for a while. As for a subscription based OS, no thanks. World of Warcraft subscription was bad enough :P

I doubt it. 95%+ of people get their OS with their box. To them they can't tell the difference, the OS and computer are one thing. An incremental update system (if they sold it in shops like the OS X system) would just confuse people and they probably wouldn't buy it.

Although, if they made updates really cheap (£10-30-free) I think it'd be a great idea.

Yeah, i don't know about you, but asking me to pay for something, THEN ask me to pay for something that is REQUIRED to keep it safe and secure, that we have a right to be provided for free seems a wee bit on the side of unreasonable.

Agreed with Ramble. The "What's an operating system?) crowd is too big of a market. THey buy a computer and expect it to work and keep working for two or three years at which point they buy a new one. Fundamentally, MS makes too much on each new windows release to ever think of giving them up. Sadly, I think we'll be seeing new retail versions for a long time to come.

Further thought...

Has anyone ever taken a complete computer noob, someone's grandmother say, and plunked them down in front of a fresh install of linux? Is the learning curve from zero for common applications really any steeper? Seems like it would be more secure for people who don't understand the concept of "this is not a safe website". Just free thinking before caffiene here, but...

Originally Posted by Cthippo
Agreed with Ramble. The "What's an operating system?) crowd is too big of a market. THey buy a computer and expect it to work and keep working for two or three years at which point they buy a new one.

Aha, but M$ will keep making money off those folks regardless of whether it's XP, Vista or another OS.


I'd agree with the analysists, not in the "it doesn't make sense" camp, but rather the "What else can they possibly add?". The jump from 3.1 to 95, and 9x-XP were pretty big (although increasingly smaller), eventually we have to get to a point where the OS gives us most if not everything we require from it.

Aggies

All good valid points. But from my side I say I hope they dont stop windows at all I dont care if it goes the subscription route. As long as windows stays I will be happy. I ave been spoiled and love windows to heart I tried Mac and linux and they seem to poor in the way they look and to advanced. I need something simple and fun not somethign crazy. SO yeah I am an M$ fan and will support them until I die. Even with all there bugs.

On the subscription OS thing, I would wait until i saw the pricing until i decided on whether to stay or go. Unfortunatly until a simple and reliable alternative with all the games and program support comes along, there really is not a lot of alternatives

rest assured Microsoft will continue to make a profit. the world will turn, operating system debates will remain uninteresting.

I call BS on this one. There'd be no money in it for Microsoft

Originally Posted by M4RTIN
technically apple make you pay £100 for a service pack as the "new" os's are just updates to the core os10.. they do offer a lot more than the windows service packs do, but thats essentialy what they are

Technically, nobody actually pays for it ;) But if you're so inclined, Mac addicts can buy a family-pack of five OS licenses for $200, or $40 a machine, which I think is pretty reasonable.

I kinda agree and disagree.

I really think that MS will still have box sales for many years ahead, however the company will probably try to focus more on internet based distribution. The easiest way to think about it is to look at it as Valve's Steam only for Operating Systems.

It is a bit unusual, however this nontraditional way of distribution would have many advantages.

Okay here's my vision. Through an update or a download MS OS user gets an application which would be like an "Upgrade Catalog." The user then can select the upgrade options and features he/she desires. Example: - Windows Fiji Framework + Media Center + Office Suite + enchanted GUI + Remote Desktop.

Microsoft has been slowly moving towards this with the updates to XP, and now with Vista upgrade capabilities.

But imagine a total customization. Windows Framework + gaming services... download, restart, and go crazy, later just download MCE addition. Cheaper for MS, and for users. Microsoft could contain much of pirating, update and develop OS on the go. And how evil would it be to sell cheaper subscriptions for beta versions. Just release stable OS framework, and then go crazy developing and rolling out features and application + getting fast feedback from beta testers.

However due to crappy network infrastructure in US and certain other parts of the world, MS would still have to have DVD/CD sales. So how about having blazing fast DVD/CD/mem card sales of applications/features for those without fast internet connections.

I believe Microsoft is really heading towards similar distribution method. And I personally think it would be great, since separate divisions within Microsoft/Windows development could roll out new features and updates not having to wait years and years since the new official release.

I say bring it on.

Most people i know like the idea of buying something once and then not having to worry about paying per month or per year for it to keep working. So I don't think that this subscription thing will work all that well for something as critical and necessary as an operating system. I know i certainly won't be going for it... it will seem more like hiring a computer than buying one.

Originally Posted by Cthippo
Has anyone ever taken a complete computer noob, someone's grandmother say, and plunked them down in front of a fresh install of linux? Is the learning curve from zero for common applications really any steeper? Seems like it would be more secure for people who don't understand the concept of "this is not a safe website".

I agree... for someone who isn't already used to windows (or is willing to change), linux is a great alternative. Given the right distro it's fairly self explanatory and unless they want to play the latest games it should do fine. And there are very few exploits and viruses that work on linux so it would be much safer. And as an added bonus it's not only free but no anti-virus/spyware software needs to be bought and installed either.

as i see it the only reason realistically to be upgrading from Xp is for the new driver interface (read DX10 and the way it acts with the OS). now it would appear to me that this would be more easily upgradable system in the way that when something new is added it wouldntchange the underlying system but more like an add-on or expansion pack. so whilst i dont think that windows will become subscription at any point i could see microsoft charging for add ons say for example £10 for a new network type support £15 for a brand new windows security centre V2, £30 for WINFS support etc. whilst keeping critical updates free. this way you can choose what you want to pay for. the only problem i see is that Microsoft will have to introduce advertising into windows. and that would be the last straw for me.

If linux ran Direct X i would start using that but until it does....

whilst i have used linux in the past (Ubuntu, SUSE and Slackware) i just dont see the benefits of going to the trouble of running a multiple OS enviroment at home but if i didnt game i definatly would go for Linux over Windows.

i think that Windows and games will be bound together for a long while after the directx10 and since there are no safe was to emulate them in linux..
if the game industry like dx10 and they use only them to build games windows and M$ will get a lot of benefits from it.

for the subscribed os thing, first we must see the costs for it...

for the OS future, the most user friendly OS will win over the others, even if it's like the previous and it doesn't bring new usefull things.

It would be nice to hear what microsoft say about all of this. Operating systems is what made microsoft, it's what they are good at and I can't see that changing. As for Linux, it's still a bit long hair and jesus sandals for most people. But, and just throwing this in here, the chinese seem to be looking for ways to go it alone with technology and are fans of linux, so, who knows we might see a chinese copy of windows emerging, hopefully with an english version!

No more huge box releases, huh? Just smaller charges for large kernel updates and feature additions? Now, that sounds familiar....

No one ever said Apple had it wrong.

Personally I think that they may be thinking more out of the box rather than just going with a subscription. By the time the next xbox is out, it will be possible to integrate pc and console all into one. So instead of having to buy a computer and all that other ****, Microsoft can now totally dominate a large segment of both console, pc gaming, and pc hardware. Plus who wouldnt want to type up there papers, browse the internet, edit, pictures, get email, watch movies.... on huge ultra hd displays. Integration is the way of the future.

Originally Posted by trailblazer
It would be nice to hear what microsoft say about all of this. Operating systems is what made microsoft, it's what they are good at and I can't see that changing...

MS started by selling someone else's ideas (BASIC) then they bought DOS from someone else... The history of MS shows that what they are best at is anti-competitive marketing and tactics like "embrace, extend, & extinguish". Along the way they have made some good products but most of their "innovations" have been acquired from others.

But you are correct in stating that they are unlikely to change what has made them successful.

Originally Posted by trailblazer
... As for Linux, it's still a bit long hair and jesus sandals for most people. But, and just throwing this in here, the chinese seem to be looking for ways to go it alone with technology and are fans of linux, so, who knows we might see a chinese copy of windows emerging, hopefully with an english version!

I wouldn't hold my breath while waiting for that. Unless Linux undergoes some serious changes it will NEVER surpass Windows. ExtremeTech has a few interesting articles on Linux and I think page 4 of this article applies to more than just games. Linux NEEDS support from software developers and hardware manufacturers but won't get it with it's current model while Windows already has Huge amounts of that support. I too would love to see a serious challenge to Windows but at this moment the only thing to give MS any challenge has been governments not wanting MS to dominate everything. - China vs. MS - I'm not sure who to cheer for.

and what happens if MS do decide to stop releasing windows how long before they start forcing manufacturers to build graphics cards/ mobo's etc that have to have specific software code to work and of course that software code would be owned by MS i know it sounds a little far fetched but so did companies having to pay MS so that their drivers would be considered digitally signed.


if this doesn't make sense ignore it I've only just got up after 2 hours sleep and caffeine hasn't kicked in yet

I read your links Tynsar and with regard to BASIC I think it's fair to say that there were several flavours of BASIC and the article does say under the heading "Explosive growth" that "In 1975 MITS released ALTAIR BASIC, developed by Bill Gates and Paul Allen as Micro-Soft." As for DOS there were later on, two versions IBM PC-DOS and MS-DOS, both based on someone elses software, however, users had an impact on the popularity of MS-DOS over IBM PC-DOS, as the article states " With the advent of IBM pc clones all running on intel processors, the name IBM became less important to home users, what was important was keeping up with intels steadily increasing clock speeds and the ability to run MS-DOS." As for "embrace,extend and extinguish" the article says under the heading "Counter crticism" that " other companies besides Microsoft introduced proprietary, non-standards compliant extensions ( for example, Netscape, which introduced the FONT tag, and other HTML extensions in 1995)", so again being fair I don't think this was just a Microsoft thing. Perhaps this all has to be put into context with the climate in the software industry at the time when all this was going on. Having said all that, I don't like the thought of one massive corporation having such a grip on the software and computer industry and users, as the saying goes " power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely". I would also like to see a serious contender emerge, so, I guess it's either hope for that or admit defeat, I threw in China as a bit of a wild card, but it will take some company or country to invest a massive amount of money and resources to compete or, maybe MS will become so large it will become a victim of it's own success.

Originally Posted by Vulcam
Most people i know like the idea of buying something once and then not having to worry about paying per month or per year for it to keep working. So I don't think that this subscription thing will work all that well for something as critical and necessary as an operating system..

Isn't that the general system for virus defs?

The firm states that Vista will be the last version of Windows to be released... What Gartner does predict is that it is frankly too difficult and expensive to keep pushing these tremendous box sales for new versions.

Can't see it. Everybody releases new versions as often as they can. Doesn't matter whether it's a car, a washing machine, or a program. We demand new technology. New technology will demand new solutions. We've seen Star Trek's computers, don't tell me that will be a bolt-on service pack for Vista. Multi-processor is on the near horizon - another bolt-on? I think not. Is 64-bit the end of the line? Has it even been perfected.

MS may branch far more into non-backwards compatibility in their systems, that started as a blessing and ended up a curse over the last few years. And produce a wider range of choices (carrying on from Vista) to suit different user requirements. But they're not going to leave the OS to other people to develop - that could threaten everything else they do.

What subscription OS? You are talking like MS Windows is the only MS product or service. And let apart the rest of their bizillion software which are aimed at either users, developers, system administrators etc, what about Microsoft Research? MSR employs 25% of all U.S. PhD CS students.

I mean, Microsoft released a Microsoft Robotics Studio this December for programming robots. You think they will stop profiting because of their OS? You are largely mistaken!

Alright so it seems that Microsoft Codename "Fiji" will be kinda like an update to Vista. With it MS is planning to update all bundled apps, include WinFS on top of NTFS, "Monaco" - garageband like app, somesort of Windows Live application (which would connect Messenger and other LIVE services, Default HDVD (and maybe Blue-Ray) playback, Updated Speech Recognition, More Security, and all round refreshments.

Yes so Microsoft is already starting to take steps to work as you go Windows plan.


And then the future Windows "Vienna"

MS is planning to break away its chains: compatibility with all applications. The reason being that it would be much much MUCH easier to create more secure and simplier, yet more powerful Operating System. MS will try to push Speech Recognition even further, also a new interface that might throw away the START menu. New File management system with Applications controlling most of file management rather than current user creating folders etc. Another interesting goal is to create "Sandbox." A place for non-managed code apps to run, however without allowing them or their exploits to affect the whole OS.

Would anyone choose to pay time and time again for something that throws as many curve balls as Microsoft's products? Paying for XP once was enough of a pain in the back side, but the disk is there when you need to start all over again (like i'm doing for a friends comp this afternoon). After your third install, your "less than $5 a month" lifeline may start annoying you more than the time it takes to change to something that works without all the effort!
Jaz_knos