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Vista adoption to be the fastest ever, says analyst

Vista adoption to be the fastest ever, says analyst

Analyst: Vista will have the fastest growing OS user base ever, with up to 15% of users moving over in the first year.

A software analyst has predicted that the adoption of Microsoft's upcoming Windows Vista operating system will happen quicker than any previous OS release.

David Mitchell, Software Practice Leader at Ovum Ltd, claims that up to 15% of computer users will make the move to Windows Vista in the first year, making it the fastest growing new OS user base ever. He went on to say that Windows XP was adopted by 12-14% of users in its first year.

Many developers and gamers are looking forward to the next-generation graphical effects that we can expect to see in DirectX 10 enabled games. Both AMD and NVIDIA are also hoping for a resurgence in PC gaming and an increase in discrete graphics card sales, thanks to the Aero glass 3D desktop. The benefits don't stop there though, as Microsoft has made many improvements to the operating system's core.

Mitchell believes that Vista will be adopted quickly by both corporate customers and end users. The corporate adoption is thanks to Microsoft's Software Assurance scheme, which will grant participating companies an automatic upgrade. Of course, that is subject to the companies wanting to roll the new operating system out across their networks. He also believes that consumer adoption will be high too. Mitchell pointed to the rate of beta adoption, claiming that "it's very high".

The analyst also went on to talk about the rate of adoption for Microsoft's Office 2007 suite, indicating that the rate of adoption will be lower than Windows Vista in the first twelve months. He pointed out that "You don't get the OEM drag effect. If you buy a new PC, you get a copy of Vista. You don't necessarily get a copy of Office."

Will you be upgrading to Windows Vista and/or Office 2007 in the first year? Let us know in the forums.

20 Comments

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Brooxy 28th November 2006, 10:49 Quote
In light of the potential minimun specs for vista, i'd be very suprised if it gets taken up by more people in the first year as XP. At least XP can run without a hitch on older systems...

I'm going to go for a while until upgrading, at least waiting for XP SP3 to come out, because I want to see what that adds to Windows XP, and then judge if it's going to be benificial for me to upgrade.
DreamTheEndless 28th November 2006, 10:58 Quote
Quote:
A software analyst has predicted that the adoption of Microsoft's upcoming Windows Vista operating system will happen quicker than any previous OS release.

[cough]bull5h1t[/cough]

(Brooxy said it more coherently than that, but I think I summed it up pretty well.)
trailblazer 28th November 2006, 11:09 Quote
I can't help thinking there are probably other "software analysts " out there who say exactly the opposite and with good reason. I don't think that the interest in the beta version is a true guide to the eventual take up. What earth shattering changes is it going to make to the average user, or the business user for that matter, bearing in mind that the business user is probably not terribly interested in the gaming potential of his systems ! A 15 percent migration in the first year compared to 12 to 14 percent for XP might sound better ( but only slightly) but it does not sound like it's going to change the world.
Glider 28th November 2006, 11:31 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brooxy
In light of the potential minimun specs for vista, i'd be very suprised if it gets taken up by more people in the first year as XP. At least XP can run without a hitch on older systems...
No go back in time to around when XP came out... Exactly the same thing was said back then... Older systems now = high tech, state of the art l33t systems back then...

SSDD [Same ****, Different Day]
blackerthanblack 28th November 2006, 11:31 Quote
Very true trailblazer.

Without the new file system, will businesses actually see any benefit of moving across any time soon. I would imagine most will see a downturn in productivity, not just from users learning a new system, but from them being too busy playing with the spangly 3d interface to do any work.
Mother-Goose 28th November 2006, 11:46 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
No go back in time to around when XP came out... Exactly the same thing was said back then... Older systems now = high tech, state of the art l33t systems back then...

SSDD [Same ****, Different Day]

Exactly what I was going to say. People clearly have forgotten what it was like going from win 98 to XP, and the exact same things were said as well. I am going to get vista with my new build, end of.
geek1017 28th November 2006, 11:56 Quote
Rather like XP, I won't be upgrading until I am forced to.
I held on to win2k until SP2 came out for XP and I expect to wait until the teething stage is over with the software.
I'll also need the hardware to actually run the latest and greatest games.
Djpuk 28th November 2006, 13:02 Quote
My client base is mainly SME, I have discussed Vista with most of them and none of them are willing to move next year as yet, most of them quote the XP release nightmare that was and say they will wait for SP1 to Vista before even considering migrating.
One interesting point is that there will be a build of Vista that includes Office 2007 that can be trialled for 30days and then unlocked if you want it. It will be interesting to see if Microsoft counts these versions as shipped units when they tally up the office 2007 shipping figures next year.
Rich_13 28th November 2006, 13:08 Quote
I've run some of the beta's and there is still alot of software that doesn't run.

I want the new OS but i'm prob going to wait for a couple of months because of the above point.

I'd glad the specs are high! I want the moile graphics sector to improve. No longer should crappy intergrated graphics be tollerated! more focus should/will be on powerful low power requirement components.
mikeuk2004 28th November 2006, 13:31 Quote
Ok, at £380 for the only version of vista worth buying being the Ultamate. I dont see how it can be adopted quicker than earlier op systems.

£380 I can buy a pc with XP. They want us to pay double for our PC's now.
DXR_13KE 28th November 2006, 16:42 Quote
simply improbable....not impossible... just improbable.
Redbeaver 28th November 2006, 17:36 Quote
until i can afford a Dx10 card and a CPU capable of harnessing its power, i wont buy a Dx10 OS... done.
leexgx 28th November 2006, 18:05 Quote
in 16hrs i have an nvidia 8800 GTX card so mite try vista on on new hdd just for kicks to see how it runs

id probly stay with XP for an bit (but i been useing xp from week 2 of it been out list of securty holes if you do not install sp2 is wurrying as some of my frends still have not obtaned copys of an XP pro(c)/home sp2 disk yet and wunder why thay get an worm virus (msblaster types) soon as thay connect to the internet)

XP has worked very well as long as the hardware is stable XP is stable (-) any software bugs from programs and mallware
EK-MDi 28th November 2006, 18:40 Quote
This is great 'news' (if that's what it is). The more people who upgrade to Vista, the more software we will have that takes advantage of its kool new under the hood features, such as XAML, .Net 3.0, and DirectX 10.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geek1017
Rather like XP, I won't be upgrading until I am forced to.
I held on to win2k until SP2 came out for XP and I expect to wait until the teething stage is over with the software.
I'll also need the hardware to actually run the latest and greatest games.
Your loss, mate -- LOL :)
yodasarmpit 28th November 2006, 19:28 Quote
Most companies are just now adopting XP, Vista will be the domain of home users with their shiny new DELL's and PC World jobbies for the foreseeable future.

Only once Vista has a proven track record will big business move over and adopt it as the OS of choice.

The only reason this will sell faster than XP did, is that there are more people buying PC's than there were at the launch of XP, most of those will be new PC's from the OEM's which will have Vista preinstalled.
z3rb 28th November 2006, 20:27 Quote
I'll probably be upgrading on sunday...
Office 2007, hells no. Open Office shall forever be my love.
Colonel Sanders 28th November 2006, 20:29 Quote
I think the only guinea pigs who are going to hop onto Vista are going to be buyers with brand new PCs. I held onto 2K until just a couple months ago, and lately Linux is looking very tempting. . .

L J
Tyinsar 28th November 2006, 23:19 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
...SSDD [Same ****, Different Day]
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodasarmpit
...The only reason this will sell faster than XP did, is that there are more people buying PC's than there were at the launch of XP, most of those will be new PC's from the OEM's which will have Vista preinstalled.

Quoted for truth. (Both were what I was about to say)

I've said it before and I'll say it again: MS has taught me to wait for _.11 / OSR2 / S.E. / SP1 (or SP2) / ... I'm looking looking forward to a new version of Windows, just not the first version.
Woodstock 29th November 2006, 04:40 Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Sanders
I think the only guinea pigs who are going to hop onto Vista are going to be buyers with brand new PCs. I held onto 2K until just a couple months ago, and lately Linux is looking very tempting. . .

L J

Exactly what ive been thinking for a few weeks, planing on getting ubuntu when i buy my new harddrive, and the only reason for me waiting for that is 40 gig fills so damm fast dammit, stupid lack of money student c**p
yakyb 29th November 2006, 14:54 Quote
whilst i agree that waiting till service pack one would seem the best thing to do i think that MS realise this and will release a SP0.5 and call it SP1 thus those people waiting for a SP1 release will buy Vista im going to wait unitl april May next year and see what the forums here and at toms have to say about it
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