A recent report by industry analysts The Yankee Group
in Boston, Mass., has stated that Sony's Playstation 3 will inevitably win
the console war - but not until around 2011. The analysts go on to state that Microsoft will be a close second in the race, with Nintendo being a far third. There is no word on how the industry has been crippled by Infineon Labs deciding not to proceed
with the Phantom console, though.
Anyhow, back to the soothsayer report: The group feels that the next-gen consoles will reach their full saturation around the year 2011. At that point, the prices will have dropped (and the HDTV technology will have penetrated the market) enough that those who want one will have little excuse to not own one. When the market reaches that level is the first time the group feels a clear winner can be determined, as until then it becomes a battle of sale prices and availability.
The Yankee group sees Sony as the victor in 2011, with around 30 million console sales at 44% of the market (see why I call them soothsayers? Miss Cleo couldn't give you something nearly that specific). Microsoft will hold about 40% with roughly 27 million sales, and Nintendo will hold 16% with 11 million sales. Along with the actual numbers comes a slightly more vague prediction on when the first price war will commence, with Microsoft being expected to cut its price "next year."
I know that many members of our forums would like to view the actual report, but unfortunately Yankee's site requires credential-based registration. So if you're so inclined and can get past the moat, guard dogs, and laser beams, give it a read on their site.
Do you think the Yankee Group has it right? Or do you see it differently? Entertain your thoughts on the study in our forums