I love analyst days. You can go for weeks without anyone saying anything truly memorable, and then all at once a flurry of reports, retractions, and amazing statements come flying from all directions.
This time, we're hearing from the super-analysts at Gartner. For those of you unfamiliar with the company, Gartner is the largest IT industry analyst firm in the world, and it got there for a reason - it's pretty good at its guesses. This time, the firm has spoken up
about Microsoft and the future of MS Windows, among other things.
First, we'll get the other things out of the way. Gartner and its magic 8-ball predict that blogging will peak in 2007 at approximately 100 million bloggers. Ok, got that? Now, onto the interesting stuff.
The firm states that Vista will be the last version of Windows to be released. For all of you penguin-heads, that doesn't mean Windows will be dead - so put your Bill Gates voodoo dolls away. What Gartner does predict is that it is frankly too difficult and expensive to keep pushing these tremendous box sales for new versions.
What's interesting is that the report doesn't state an alternative business model for Windows. It talks about how technologically, we'll likely see smaller upgrades that change how the operating system performs. But if it indeed holds true, how will Microsoft profit from it? I see a subscription-based model in our future...
Of course, all of this is rampant speculation. However, unlike a lot of rampant speculation, this just happens to come from guys that have made a living off of it for 37 years. Could they be right?
What do you think of the idea of a subscription-based model for your OS? Do thoughts of it make penguins light up in your eyes? Tell us your thoughts in our forums