Metal Gear Solid 4 will have to sell more than a million copies on the first day to even start breaking even.

Metal Gear Solid 4 will have to sell more than a million copies on the first day to even start breaking even.

Are exclusive games a good way to make money or are they a sure-fire way to limit your audience? That's the question that Reuters put to analysts in a recent article examining the state of console gaming and, for some companies, the news isn't good.

Speaking about Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, the game's assistant producer Ryan Payton said that the game has had such high development costs that it would need to sell more than a million copies on the first day alone to even start making profit.

That's a pretty tough aim, especially when you remember that only two PlayStation 3 games have ever managed to sell a million copies - and even then that's a total figure. No PS3 game yet has sold that fast, but if any game can do it then it's Metal Gear Solid 4.

The article goes on to explore how exclusives are getting less and less viable for companies and that even the largest publishers could take a beating if they had more than two or three exclusives fail to live up to sales expectations.

"We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony in the full article. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything."

Hm, maybe. It all depends on how good the ports are, doesn't it?

Are you tired of exclusives too? Will you be picking up a copy of MGS4? Let us know in the forums.
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Quote mikeuk2004 1st December 2007, 09:32
Although Rachet and Clank made over 750K sales from existing Ps3 owners. MGS4 will do over a million as that game will get a alot of new Ps3 sales especially with the new 40GB at £280.

Its one of the biggest games out there and will be a sure thing.

But isnt it obvious that games development is getting more and more expensive and therefore rely on millions of sales to recoup the money used? I thought it was.
Quote DXR_13KE 1st December 2007, 11:05
it will sell.... there are lots people waiting for this game to buy a PS3....
Quote adamc 1st December 2007, 11:28
why does the 1M have to come on launch day? I'd put money on that not happening, as Super Mario Galaxy sold 500,000 on its first day (in America) and the Wii has a much larger user base.
Quote DXR_13KE 1st December 2007, 11:55
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamc
why does the 1M have to come on launch day? I'd put money on that not happening, as Super Mario Galaxy sold 500,000 on its first day (in America) and the Wii has a much larger user base.

and what is the fan base for MGS?
Quote leexgx 1st December 2007, 12:03
i am wanting the PS3 60gb model (PS 1/2 support) anoying as i cant find any to but that are not asking an stupid price for it or even have it in stock

i have liked there PS2 Metal Gear Solid as i have played it alot when i was around my frends house alot so id probly get it my self as well
Quote DougEdey 1st December 2007, 12:17
I asked 5 people I know that don't have a PS3 (infact I don't know anyone *with* a PS3) that I know like MGS, 3 said they will definately buy a PS3 to play MGS4, the other two were uncertain, one was uncertain because one of the games destroyed his passion for it.

I've never been that interested in it because it's just seemed a bit tedious to me. I'm a very much, Jump in and Play person.
Quote Shadowed_fury 1st December 2007, 12:26
I can see it selling 1m in the first day actually...
MGS is huge now, and imo, its one of those games that make you buy the console ;) (like me)
Quote Paradigm Shifter 1st December 2007, 13:46
Well, I'll be buying a copy, so that's one down. :) And I know a few other people who will buy it - and a PS3 if they don't have one by the time it's released.

I'm not sure, really, whether it'll sell a million copies in it's first day, but I'd be more sure of it selling a million copies in the first week. Still... I find I'm more interested in Devil May Cry 4 than MGS4...
Quote Veles 1st December 2007, 17:12
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamc
why does the 1M have to come on launch day?

Because sales dwindle in a predictable pattern
Quote The_Beast 1st December 2007, 19:24
wow 1 million in one day is a lot

that is 41,666 games per hour, 694 games per minute, 11 games per second
Quote C-Sniper 1st December 2007, 23:48
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Beast
wow 1 million in one day is a lot

that is 41,666 games per hour, 694 games per minute, 11 games per second

0_o
Quote leexgx 2nd December 2007, 02:43
heh
Quote HellRazor 2nd December 2007, 05:31
Are there even 1 million PS3 that have been sold...I mean I'm sure there are a million, but most of them are most likely sitting at the stores!
Quote Amon 2nd December 2007, 07:07
Just raise the price by five bucks to slightly relieve that ridiculous estimate.
Quote devdevil85 2nd December 2007, 07:20
IMO, the game should have no problem reaching it's goal (now why on the 1st day? idk...).

How many units have sold in Japan alone? For as many people that are over there that live/die Sony & the MGS series I just don't see how it shouldn't hit that mark from Japan itself....but still...why the 1st day? Who says that that is how it's gotta be? That if they don't they fail? The game should have a goal for the end of the week atleast.......

Why are exclusives now becoming a lost reality where back in PS 1/2, Xbox, even Dreamcast days it was normal to expect them?

Sadly, now w/ exclusives becoming a thing of the past, the only reason for consumers to want two consoles on the market is for competition (price, performance, features, etc.), but that's not fun now is it? I want to be able to voluntarily force a friend of mine to spend the night at my house just to play a game that I, and only I, can play! lol.....

The only good thing I see from an exclusive is that it plays its best on a system and that system, alone. But, w/ ports becoming easier to master maybe that statement really isn't true...maybe it's really just extra features that each system can offer that will make the game different......alright enough rambling....

I would love to have bit write an article on why the gaming industry is becoming more complex, and why developement costs along w/ console costs (I know I know this is a PC site, but still....they're specialized computers) are much higher than the previous generations.......
Quote sandys 2nd December 2007, 10:02
bar the Initial offering most of the MGS titles haven't really been great sellers, 1M is optimistic, very optimistic, unless Sony copy the halo hype model but at the moment Sony haven't been very good a pushing games for their platform.

I'd imagine they have said it needs to do 1M in day one to have an excuse to go multiplatform when it doesn't achieve.
Quote culley 2nd December 2007, 10:39
This game in the reason i plan to buy a PS3, just the same with Zelda when i good one comes out on a better next gen Nintendo console i'll buy one of those two.
Quote Veles 2nd December 2007, 14:21
Quote:
Originally Posted by devdevil85
but still...why the 1st day?

As I said in my other post, sales dwindle in a predictable way. If MGS follows that roughly, which it most likely will, for the game to sell enough copies to be profitable within a certain time, then it's going to have to start off with a million sales.

As said by other people no single PS3 game has sold 1 million copies in it's entire lifetime, but if any game can break 1 million sales in it's first day it will be MGS. I would imagine a lot of people will be buying a PS3 for this game, I'm not myself, I'm not the biggest fan of the MGS series. I do like the games, but I've never rushed to the shops to buy it before, I'm waiting until the game and the console have dropped to a more considerable level and not before I have a nice HDTV, otherwise it's a complete waste of money.
Quote cjoyce1980 3rd December 2007, 08:15
the only way they will sell 1M copies at launch is if there release a 360/PC version at the same time.....
Quote Amon 3rd December 2007, 16:44
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjoyce1980
the only way they will sell 1M copies at launch is if there release a 360/PC version at the same time.....

I'd actually like to see that happen.
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