What’s next for the GeForce 500-series?
Posted on 10th Nov 2010 at 14:44 by Clive Webster with 56 comments
Now that we’ve seen the speed of the GeForce GTX 580 1.5GB, our attention naturally turns to the future. Unfortunately, while we know some interesting things about the forthcoming ATI Radeon HD 6900-series, we’re still not allowed to tell you anything about it, so I’ll focus instead on what I think the rest of the GeForce 500-series might have in store.
There are two worrying aspects to the GeForce 400-series if you’re an ATI employee of supporter – many of the the GPUs have had disabled units, and they’ve proved to be roughly 25 per cent overclockable. Add to this the new fp16 capabilities of the GF110 re-vamp that we should assume the whole range will use and you’re looking at some frightening numbers for the Radeon clan.
If we say that every GeForce 500-series GPU will have proportionally the same frequency increase as the GTX 580 1.5GB has over the GTX 480 1.5GB, and if each GeForce 500-series has one extra SM over its 400-series counterpart (as the GTX 580 1.5GB does), we could see the GeForce GTX 570 1.3GB being 29 per cent faster than the GTX 470 1.3GB. That should be enough to overhaul the Radeon HD 5870 1GB in most tests, but that’s not where things are really interesting – when we move to the mid-range, ATI could be truly scuppered.
If we stick to the same conjecture – one extra SM and proportionally the same extra frequency – we see a GeForce GTX 560 GPU that’s up to 38 per cent faster than the GeForce GTX 460 GPU. What’s more, as the chip would be the same size as the GF104 of the GTX 460, a GTX 560 would cost the same, giving us cards that cost £150 to £180. If this conjecture is even remotely true, the Radeon HD 6850 1GB and HD 6870 1GB will look laughably underpowered in comparison.
So, what can we expect from the GeForce 500-series? It could well be seen as one of Nvidia’s most brilliant GPU ranges since the GeForce 8-series. If so, ATI will have failed to take full advantage of the DX11 monopoly it was gifted late last year.
Click to see my (fairly rough) working for the above speculation.
There are two worrying aspects to the GeForce 400-series if you’re an ATI employee of supporter – many of the the GPUs have had disabled units, and they’ve proved to be roughly 25 per cent overclockable. Add to this the new fp16 capabilities of the GF110 re-vamp that we should assume the whole range will use and you’re looking at some frightening numbers for the Radeon clan.
If we say that every GeForce 500-series GPU will have proportionally the same frequency increase as the GTX 580 1.5GB has over the GTX 480 1.5GB, and if each GeForce 500-series has one extra SM over its 400-series counterpart (as the GTX 580 1.5GB does), we could see the GeForce GTX 570 1.3GB being 29 per cent faster than the GTX 470 1.3GB. That should be enough to overhaul the Radeon HD 5870 1GB in most tests, but that’s not where things are really interesting – when we move to the mid-range, ATI could be truly scuppered.
If we stick to the same conjecture – one extra SM and proportionally the same extra frequency – we see a GeForce GTX 560 GPU that’s up to 38 per cent faster than the GeForce GTX 460 GPU. What’s more, as the chip would be the same size as the GF104 of the GTX 460, a GTX 560 would cost the same, giving us cards that cost £150 to £180. If this conjecture is even remotely true, the Radeon HD 6850 1GB and HD 6870 1GB will look laughably underpowered in comparison.
So, what can we expect from the GeForce 500-series? It could well be seen as one of Nvidia’s most brilliant GPU ranges since the GeForce 8-series. If so, ATI will have failed to take full advantage of the DX11 monopoly it was gifted late last year.
Click to see my (fairly rough) working for the above speculation.
56 Comments
Discuss in the forums Replyof course, by the time a full lineup has been released, it'd probably be one year since 500's corresponding card came to market.
C'mon Clive!:
In their defense, most of their advantage was lost due to TSMC screwing up 32nm. That was the cat they were going to let out of the bag after Nvidia responded, instead TSMC threw the bag in a river.
ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
Going even further, you could say that the 6870 is the successor of the 5770, and it has a 70% performance increase (min framerate, 19x12, here: http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/graphics/2010/11/09/nvidia-geforce-gtx-580-review/7) , so this means that the 6970 will also feature 70% performance hike over the 5870, obliterating nVidia till kingdom come.
Ofcourse, there's a milion things wrong with all that, just as your ludicrous math has no merit to it whatsoever. From nVidia fanboys i am expecting to see these kind of posts, but you are supposed to be a respected journalistic outlet. Yeah fine, it's a blog, and some speculation is fine, but please don't become a next Charlie.
The newer fp16 capabilities were on the GF104 and 106 already. Only the GF100 cards didn't have them.
"...ATi (they're gone btw) could be truly scuppered."
"...the Radeon HD 6850 1GB and HD 6870 1GB will look laughably underpowered in comparison."
Your PR is as strong as Nvidia's, and you state you have info about the 6900 series as well, which could influence some people (insider knowledge and all that).
So basically you're giving free PR to Nvidia, whilst trashing AMD's new 6xxx lineup.
And yet this is 'speculation' ?
I'm not pro- any side, but i do take exception to someones personal speculative blog being on the front page of what should be a respectable tech site.
Being respected is to not be biased. If Bit Tech is leaning to one side or the other, put THAT on the front page, and change your name to NvNews or something.
This should not be on the Front page.
although i'm glad how well ati/amd have been doing (they really needed it) i'm REALLY disappointed in their hd6000 series so far. its barely better, i sure hope the hd69xx cards will live up to their expectations.
i do feel that bit-tech is a little biased towards nvidia. from the article i read yesterday about the gtx580, it did do great but it also wasn't #1 in every test, but bit-tech was acting as though it was #1 in all tests. i checked guru3d.com, and it was positioned #2 in almost every test.
Not cool.
Not cool.
But Not right.
What's more the 580 is not a new chip in terms of new architecture. It's a mostly fixed 480. If we want to start getting our knickers in a twist over the name on the box a lá 68xx v 67xx then this card should rightly be called the gtc485.
"Unfortunately, while we know some interesting things about the forthcoming ATI Radeon HD 6900-series, were still not allowed to tell you anything about it"
Which can be taken either way. I hate secrets :(
I can't see AMD loosing against nVidia unless 6970 performs worse than 6870. It's new architecture and with a few months tweaks we're looking into fine battle between GT5# and HD6# series...
And given the efficiency of 6800 GPUs, AMD can afford some price cuts on these...
The best gpu upgrade I ever had though was the 8800gtx. If this turns out true I might be selling my 5870's to buy 1 & put the rest towards aluminium :D.
But
Blah, it's a blog, take with a pinch of salt until results roll in when available ;).
My 8800's were great cards. ;)
Not pro or bashing anyone, cards maybe, but not the company itself.
we all have ups and downs, and seeing the prices the gtx470, and 460 are going for now its great price war, and win-win for us, the buyers ;)
just not wanting to see such a thing on the front page.
If it was in the blog section, I wouldn't have seen it lol.
He admits he slants to Nvidia, I get it, just not on the front page.
did you read the reviews of the 4xx series?
now there has been a price drop nvidia are competing again (though probably not at much profit) and if they can up the count and clocks on their cards as the report says then ati will have to stop making quite so many $$$ and drop the prices of their small die cards to compete
this is good
Is the GTX 580 a good card? Yes it is as it runs cooler, quieter, uses less Watts and has a huge performance boost.(about time) do your speculations make any sense? NO. cause the GTX 460 GF104 isn't missing any SM as it is a fully utilized designed unlike the GF100.
Rumor has it the GTX 570 will use only 480 sm thus making it a cooler quieter more efficient GTX 480. No word on a GTX 560 although I'm more interested in Zotac's GTX 460 x2 which can perform on par with a GTX 580 (see GTX 460 sli benchmarks) but for a lower price (2 GTX 460 1gb $420)
As far as AMD goes a HD 6870 CF beats a GTX 580 (see benchmarks). AMD only needs the HD 6970 and the 6950 to stay within 8 frames of their GTX 580 and 570 counterparts while releasing at a lower price point as this has been AMD strategy for some time. The HD 6990 will take care of the rest at the extreme price level just like the HD 5970 is still the fastest now.
It's all about the $150 to $300 sweet spot in video cards and AMD has realized this (HD 6850 6870) and so has Nvidia (GTX 460 and soon to be GTX 470).
AMD or Nvidia you can't go wrong as both companies are at war for gamer's wallets and it's a win win situation for all pC gamers.
480 = High end v1, 460 = Mid-Range v1.
Therefore 580 = High End v2, 560 = Mid-Range v2.
IF NVidia refreshes their mid-range cards (Highly likely, as they've done so in the past) AND
IF the performance difference between it and the newly-released high-end card is similar to the difference between the 460 and 480 (Quite possible), AND
IF NVidia release it at the same price point (Which they are likely to do, as the manufacturing costs are the same),
THEN the "560" will wipe the floor with all currently released cards at it's price point (Namely, the 6870 and 6850).
Admittedly, there are 3 big IFs in there, but all those IFs are highly likely to happen.
ATi/AMD have shown their hand for mid-range, and at the moment they have a winner. NVidia have not answered that play yet, and they're playing their cards close to their chest, but what they have shown for the high-end indicates a very strong mid-range hand. We'll soon find out just how ATi/AMD are going to answer NVidia's high-end challenge, and shortly after that we will probably hear NVidia's mid-range response. As it stands at the moment, though, if NVidia disabled an SM, downgraded the RAM, and called it good (As it has a history of doing, look at the 470, 9600 and so on) you get an idea of what a 560 would look like, and that is mighty tempting, and more powerful than the 68xx's. Which is where this blog post is coming from, IMHO.
I am not an NVidia rep, nor am I an ATi/AMD rep, not do I have a vested interest in this fight (My machine is still running a Athlon 64 x2 5600+ with 2GB RAM, there's no way I could keep up with cards like these).
Sure it is based on Fermi Architecture but obvious lt went through a different engineering process to achieve it's performance versus your idea of just turning off SM.
Sorry but just disabling the GTX 580 down to a GTX 560 doesn't always work just look at the horror show that is the GTX 465 and on the AMD side see HD 5830.
The engineering process of the GTX 460 got Nvidia to the GTX 580. Sure Nvidia could disable some Sm to acheive a GTX 570 but a GTX 560 may or may not be feasible especially for that price bracket .
I don't see a GTX 560 wiping the floor with a HD 6870, beating it in performance by 2% sure but not at a $230 price point in which the HD 6870 is and of course will drop if needed if a GTX 560 arrives.
The GTX 570 is the key for Nvidia if they can get it to perform slightly better than a GTX 480 for around a price of $350 then it will garner huge sales figures.
Nvidia having to refresh their line up within 8 months of release shows they took a beating but all questions of their impending return to dominance will be answered when the HD 6970 is released.
but if bit has it in house.. and they are still blowing the green goblin
I seriously don't see the HD 6970 beating the GTX 580, maybe coming up 3 to 6% short but selling at a cheaper price. The HD 6990 will be AMD ultimate card that surpasses the GTX 580 which hasn't surpassed the HD 5970 except maybe in Far Cry 2 and Metro 2033 w/ DOF and Tessellation on.
i just installed my 2x 460 cards a 3-4 months ago and the new ones are already under way and so much faster damn you indeed.
aldo there is still much to overklock on my overklokked 460 cards and i don't see me needing anymore power then these 2 give at this moment but still this is going way to fast.
THE GTX460 ALREADY HAS MOST CHARACTERISTICS OF A GTX580. THEREFORE, YOU CANNOT APPLY THE 480 -> 580 HIKE TO A SPECULATED 460 -> 560.
Ahem. Oh sorry, capslock got stuck there. And the text seems to be printed in bold too. How odd...
First of all the 5890 does not exist. I'm not sure which performance gap you have in mind, but if you do want to make a forced analogy (which would be false for various reasons) the only valid one would be the gap between 5870 and 5770. This gap is around 70%. That would put the 6970 at 70% above the 6870, and that is well above the GTX580.
To recap:
First, you apply false logic, (results from the past are no guarantee for the future).
Second, while applying this logic you fill it with nonexistant data.
Third, even then, you fail at math and come to the wrong conclusion.
In short:
wat
I am not a fanboy, i have as much disdain for Charlie's ramblings as i have for this piece of proze. I just don't like it when a site that i previously went to for reviews and analysis starts filling their pages with drivel.
IF NVidia refreshes their mid-range cards (There are no signs they will do so before 28nm, so this chance is at best 50/50) AND
IF the performance difference between it and the newly-released high-end card is similar to the difference between the 460 and 480 (possible, but only if nVidia pulls NEW tricks out of the hat, see the part where my caps lock button got conveniently stuck above. Let's be generous, put this at 30%), AND
IF NVidia release it at the same price point (they won't as they will want to see ROI from their R&D on a new card, but let's say 50/50 again just for fun),
THEN the "560" will wipe the floor with all currently released cards at it's price point (Namely, the 6870 and 6850 (AMD might cut the prices significantly, but they probably won't so this has a likelihood of 80%)).
EDIT for GTX560 speculations above:
Try googling for GTX560. Aside from the Black Ice watercooling radiator, you won't find a thing, not even speculation. You guys are all geeding on what the clever naming people of nVidia are shovelling.
" I was hoping/expecting to read about some genuine analysis, not wild conjecture that is easily proven false (the GTX460 has no SMs left to unlock"
I count that 460 has 48 sms locked
quote and picture,
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/MSI/GeForce_GTX_460_Cyclone_OC_1_GB/
NVIDIA's GeForce Fermi (GF) 104 GPU comes with 384 shaders (CUDA cores) in the silicon but NVIDIA has disabled 48 of them to reach their intended performance targets and to improve GPU harvesting. Unlike with GF100, the GF104 has more populated streaming multiprocessors (SMs), 48 cores per SM vs. 32 cores per SM on GF100.
It's taken 8 months for nVidia to fix the 480 starting from a point where they knew on release it would need fixing. I'm not saying the 460 is simularly broken but would nVidia have already started about a respin to fix yields for the 460?
I think more like is that they'll bump up the clocks so that what is currently an oc'd 460 becomes a standard 560... as that card does currently sit between the 6850/6870.
http://images.anandtech.com/reviews/video/NVIDIA/GTX460/fullGF104.jpg
Most of the issues above still stand though. All this speculation of a GTX560 is complete BS, because a new design (NF114) would be needed, not a toned-down version of th NF110
I dont think however you will see the same increase in clocks as between the 100 and 110 (as the 104 already clocks high)
The GF104 in the 460 has one SM disabled. Either this due to yields or to prevent straight up in house competition with the much-more-expensive-to-produce 470.
A '560' with 384 shaders and a core clock of 800 mhz could make a refresh of the 470 pointless (unless the latter has a SM increase to 480 plus a core clock increase - basically making it a 480).
I think thats what the article suggests will happen
Indeed, I missed that at first glance.
It's a shame though that we will see an entire 'new' line of GPU's that arn't much faster than the 'previous gen' models.
Although it's not the be-all and end-all of things, as much as GTX 580 reviews state wait on Cayman to launch, conclusions of future GF104 derivatives will say that they are hotter and larger chips than competing ATI products. Manufacturing cost and performance per watt will be lucrative avenues to compete with until 28nm is ready next year.
Whether or not AMD is letting the DX11 lead slip through its' fingers; Bit-tech is letting its' journalistic integrity slip through its' fingers with such trash. Next thing you know they'll start reporting celebrity gossip.
http://vr-zone.com/articles/report-nvidia-geforce-gtx-560-in-2011-features-384-sp/10295.html
True, but if you look at the GTX580 review, they say its awesome, BUT you would be a fool to buy one right now. They recommend waiting until AMD release their new cards. I would read this as "AMD has something good up its sleeve, just wait and see)
Now, to all those thinking that BT are being bias, the fact they recommend NOT going out and buying one yet is (IMO) proof that they are still unbias.
Why don't you idiots stop pledging your soul to a commercial entity and just enjoy the tech.
My thoughts exactly.
Just noticed your avatar was Donald Sutherland from Kelly's Heroes, great movie :)
and with a cheapo 2nd hand gx2 says history repeats its self.....
having said that the new gen for me is getting interesting 580 is nice, new gx2 cards soon - wallet begging to be opened.
I agree, There last dual card was the 295 which was good.
I would buy it, definitely...